NFL Week Seven Wagers, Contest Plays and Computer Model Plays

After going 4-1 last week, we need to keep the momentum going in the Circa Millions.

PIT -3 at NO (PARIS)
I am still unsure of my Steelers. Defense is meh. Offense is somehow solid. The Saints struggled to protect the last few weeks and I hope the Steelers can take advantage. Pass for me.

SF -2.5 at ATL
This is the professional game of the week as the weaponless Niners have dropped by 4.5 road favorites to just under a field goal. If you missed the +3 or better, pass. I am passing. The Niners are due to drop a game and a 1 PM East Coast start after a Monday Night Football short week with no healthy wide receivers may qualify.

CLE -1.5 at TEN
I want to take the Browns. Yet, there is no way I am laying points on the road with Deshaun Watson. Pass.

IND +6.5 at MIN
I could argue that the Vikings offense has never bene healthy. Either JJ, or Kyler, or Jordan Mason has been out. The defense has been lights out. We know you can throw short and fast on the Colts with success, and their offense is struggling to be kind. Put that at together and Minnesota healthy coming off a bye week feels like a good spot. Minnesota -6.5 is in consideration in contests and as a wager.


MIA +4.5 at NYJ
The Jets should not be laying 4.5 to anyone, but I am not thrilled to be on the Dolphins either. Pass. Why even watch this game?

TB +3 at CAR
It appears the return of Baker Mayfield is upon us and he has to play better than he did before being hurt. Carolina covering as favorites in back-to-back weeks feels like something that has not happened since Cam Newton was playing. Pass for me.


CIN +1.5 at BAL
Who will play QB for the Ravens. I think Bengals and the points, may be one of the public dogs of the week. Normally, those do not work out very well. I think taking Cincy here seems too easy. Lean Bengals, but pass for now.

NYG +10.5 at HOU
Nope. Another game I have no confidence in, one way or another. Pass.

DEN -4.5 at ARZ
The Broncos are another professional side this week and it makes sense to fade the Cardinals after their big road win. Yet, I am not there with the Broncos. They needed a lot of help to cover in a similar spot against the Chargers just two weeks ago. I am not banking on Bo Nix laying points on the road.


GB +3 at DET
The Packers have had two straight home wins and now head to Detroit, who is coming off their bye week. I know the Lions defense has been bad. I realize the Packers seem to be putting it together. However, this feels like the Lions spot. The Lions offense is humming and scoring at will. I have watched Packers throw deep routinely and sometimes it works wonders, but others are a series of drops by their playmakers. Dallas failed to run the ball, barely even calling runs throughout a large portion of the game. The Lions will not forget to get Gibbs involved early and often. This is the Packers come back down-to-Earth game, where the Lions defense with returning Brian Branch do just enough to win and cover. Lions as a bet and in contests.

LAR -4 at LVR
The Raiders are home dogs getting more than a field goal, again. The Rams look old and lose another key member of their offense. Now, Puka might be hurt as well. Hopefully we get some clarity though. I like taking dogs with offenses that can score, even when in garbage time to cover, like the Raiders last week. I expect them to do it again here. Raiders as a contest play and a wager.

KC +3 at SEA
Seattle is another professional side here as this game opened Seattle -1.5 and has now steamed all the way to -3. Lots in the Chiefs great start they may be without both of their starting offensive tackles. Seattle just needs to avoid turning the ball over and they will be just fine. I am staying away, but excited to watch this game.

DAL -4.5 at PHI
One of these teams has disinterested wide receivers and a coach that seems clueless at making in game decisions. The other team is getting back their best offensive weapon. Dallas is not good and this entire division is awful. I am backing the Eagles defense to play well at home and Tanner Mckee. Barkley’s return has to bolster the Eagles offense, because it cannot get any worse. Meanwhile, Dallas cannot stop anyone and now the offense has been shaky the last two weeks. Maybe Dallas figures it out and scores a bunch and the Eagles are not able to keep up. Instead, I see Philly winning an ugly game, the Cowboys looking to push the reset button again. Eagles in contests and as a wager.

So here I am with three and almost four games ready to go. I need one more of the Circa Millions contest.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays
DET -3
LVR +4.5
PHI +4.5

3 Team 6 Point Tease +140
CIN +7.5
LVR +9.5
PHI +10.5


Circa Millions Contest
DET -3
LVR +4
PHI +3.5


NFL Computer Model Picks
Platinum
None


Premium
NYG +10.5



The Rest
NE +3
PIT -3
SF -2.5
TEN +1.5
IND +6.5
MIA +4.5
TB +3
CIN -1.5
ARZ +4.5
GB +3
LVR +4
KC +3
DAL -4.5





NFL Computer Model
2026-2027 Season
Overall 45-44 50.56%
Platinum 4-3 57.14%
Premium 11-10 52.38%

My Plays
Overall 10-7 58.82%
Circa Millions Contests Record 15-13-2 53.57%
Props/Parlays/Teasers/Other 1-4 -285
Boosts 1-1 +000

NFL Week Six Wagers, Contest Plays, Survivor Picks and Computer Model Plays

Sometimes you have to get back to basics. After two bad weeks in a row, it is important to remember who you are. I am not a favorite better. I am normally a dog bettor. I look for value, which is normally on dogs or small favorites. This week we have some bizarre spots, especially in contests. The lines lock early in the week prior to late news hitting. For example, if you are in the draft kings picks contest you can get the Panthers at +1.5 and the Falcons at +3.5. Those lines are long gone. It is always important to watch the numbers as they move during the week and take advantage of contests but be aware others will as well. If you are significantly far behind, going the other way is a great way to try and make up ground on the field.

HOU +2.5 at JAX (LONDON)
We lost on the Jags in London last week. I am not going back to the well. The Jags lost their left tackle and the Houston offense kind of got going against the Titans last week. Pass for me. This feels like a Texans or pass spot as a loss here really puts Houston in awful shape in the division.

CHI -1.5 at ATL
Does anyone know who will play QB for each team? I am awaiting some Friday practice news before doing anything here. However, if TUA is no where near the field I could be interested in Atlanta.

BAL -5.5 at CLE
I love the Browns here. Every year, Baltimore struggles in Cleveland. The Browns defense is solid enough to slow the Ravens down and the Cleveland offense can move the ball. I am here for the home divisional dog. The Ravens offensive line issues are still apparent, and I believe the Browns will put them on full display. Baltimore will win a close game here, but the Browns are live. Cleveland as a wager and in contests.

TEN +7 at IND
The Titans offense is awful and the defense is adequate. The Colts have really struggled to get the running game going and the Titans have been solid against the run. I kind of lean Titans, but I am not sure they have the ability to throw on the Colts as other teams have done. Pass for now.

NYJ +7.5 at NE
The Jets defensive line has been keeping this team in games. Getting QB pressure has allowed the Jets offense to do just enough. The Patriots are rolling at the moment and even with offensive line injuries did not miss a beat last week. I like getting the hook here, but I am not backing the Jets after a win. I will watch this to see how the Pats handle the Jets defense and protect Drake. Pass.

NO -1.5 at NYG
NOPE. I said last week I am out on the Saints. It is very important to change your mind when facts prove the opposite of what you think. I was bullish on the Saints to start the year, and they won for us in weeks one and two. I have completely flipped. The Saints cannot protect; they cannot run block and they have so few weapons on offense it is comical. Lean Giants as a home dog.

CAR -1.5 at PHI
Imagine me telling you five weeks ago the Eagles would be home dogs to the Panthers. If I have this correct. The Eagles named Andy Dalton the back up QB, demoting Tanner McKee. Two weeks ago, the Eagles released Dalton. Since that moment, the Eagles’ best offensive lineman retired. They traded another lineman to the Ravens. Barkley got hurt, Smith got Hurt, and Hurts has a blood clot. These are just the problems with the Eagles offense. Now consider the situation of the Eagles coming back from London and the Panthers with a massive rest advantage coming off a bye week. Carolina as a wager and in picks contests.

PIT -2.5 at TB
Fade the Steelers on the road and back them at home. This feels like a 10-7 team, and I am staying away from this one. The Steelers really struggled with short quick passes last week and stopped the run, I am not sure the Bucs can take advantage. Pass for me.

ARZ +12.5 at LAR
Man the Cardinals are bad. How long before we see a QB change? The Rams will figure this out, but I am not laying this many points with them. To me this is Cardinals for a back-door-cover or pass. Pass.

LAC +8.5 at KC
How can you take the Chargers? They Keep feeling like a fire everyone team. I am either playing Chiefs or passing. It feels like not that long ago you would bet the Chargers in this spot and they would lose by three. At this point, I cannot back them in any way, shape, or form, until they show something or get healthy. Pass for now.

BUF -4.5 at LVR
What an awful spot for the Bills. Back-to-back west coast games, after an overtime game on a short week. The Raiders played so badly in New England this line may be a little inflated as well. The Bills defense remains awful, and they have struggled defensively against opposing tight ends. If only the Raiders had one or two of them. Yes, I am concerned about the Raiders’ defense in this spot, but I believe they can get pressure on Josh Allen. Like I said I am back to my roots, give me the home dog Raiders as a wager and in picks contests.

DAL +1 at GB
I have no feel here for either team. Pass.

WAS +7.5 at SF
Speaking of no feel. I am 0-2 attacking the Niners this year and feel like I need to stay away from them. Pass for me. I need a better handle on this team.


So here I am sitting with three games and I need to find two more for the Circa contest.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays
CLE +5.5
LVR +4.5
CAR -1

Circa Millions Contest
CLE +5.5
LVR +4.5
CAR -1


NFL Computer Model Picks
Platinum
NYJ +7.5


Premium
CLE +5.5
TEN +7
ARZ +12.5
LAC +8.5



The Rest
DEN +2.5
HOU +2.5
ATL +1.5
NYG +1.5
CAR -1.5
TB +2.5
LVR +4.5
DAL +1
WAS +7.5





NFL Computer Model
2026-2027 Season
Overall 36-40 47.36%
Platinum 3-3 50%
Premium 8-9 47.05%

My Plays
Overall 7-7 50%
Circa Millions Contests Record 11-12-2 47.82%
Props/Parlays/Teasers/Other 1-4 -285
Boosts 1-1 +000

NFL Week Five Wagers, Contest Plays, Survivor Picks and Computer Model Plays

1-4 is not going to get it done. Now we sit at 10-9-1 after four weeks in Circa. Have to turn it around.

PHI +7.5 at JAX (LONDON)
It certainly feels like the Eagles are the correct side when considering value, but at this point that anemic offense has no weapons left. Pass for me.

IND +2.5 at PIT
The Colts are coming back from a win in London, and the Steelers have extended rest, having played last Thursday night. Even if you ignore the rest, the Colts were struggling until Washington ran out of viable quarterbacks. I think the Colts defense will continue to struggle with teams that can pass the ball down the field, which the Steelers have been doing and doing reasonably well. The Steelers have been much better at home than on the road, but the defense has played well overall. I think the Steelers are able to move the ball and defend a team with limited passing options. Steelers as a bet and Steelers in picks contests.


MIN -2.5 at NO
The Saints offensive line problems persist, and they cannot stop the run at all. Besides that, everything is great in New Orleans. I am not laying points on the road with Kyler Murray, nor do I want to back the saints, again.

CLE +2 at NYJ
I do not have a good feel for this game at all. The Browns are rested and the Jets are still missing some of their limited offensive weapons. Pass for me.

CIN -7 at MIA
The Bengals on the road, in heat, and maybe missing both of their starting wide receivers. Joe B has not been great this year, they have struggled to run the ball and now they are being asked to win by more than a touchdown on the road. Lean Miami, but they are still the Dolphins.

LV +3.5 at NE
The 4-0 ATS Raiders are getting points again on the road in New England. I kind of want to fade the Pats after their huge win against the Bills last week, but I am not a fan of this game at all. Pass for me.

NYG +4.5 at WAS
Jayden Daniels is trending toward playing and this line is reflecting that news.  I have no clue what to make of the Commanders offense and this is also Jameis on the road. Pass for me.

HOU -7.5 at TEN
Nope. I am not playing either side of this game.

CHI-1.5 at GB
The Packers offensive line is still terrible, but being a home dog to the Bears with a back-up QB is wild to me. There is no way the Bears should be favored on the road here without Caleb Williams. Lean Green Bay.

DEN -3.5 at LAC
Will the Denver offense be better now that the play calling duties may be a little different than they have been? Well, it can not be worse. Lean Denver as the Chargers seem destined for a house cleaning.

SF +3 at SEA
Okay, the Niners can not keep getting away with this. Starters get injured, the Niners just keep going. The Niners’ offense struggled against the Seahawks last year. The Seattle offense has not been as consistent as they were last year, committing significantly more turnovers this year and overall, not being as solid. Much of that can be blamed with Darnold getting hurt, then coming back and struggling on the road. I think Seattle here comes through and the Niners’ injury woes finally shine through as a problem. Seattle as a bet and in picks contests.

DET -5.5 at ARZ
This feels like a spot I would back the Cardinals. The world watched the Lions defense struggle again and we know the Cardinals can be frisky. With their left tackle out the Cardinals struggled the rest of the game last week yet almost had a chance to win and cover last week. I am staying away here as this line has moved around a fair amount. I bet you will see the Cardinals be a public dog here. Pass.

BAL +3.5 at ATL
Snoop Huntley on the road. Pass. The line is telling us Lamar is out and I have zero interest in this game.

BUF +3 at LAR
I am not going against the Bills in a dome after a bad loss. I am also not backing the Rams at home. I kind of like the Rams but pass for now.

I have lots of work to do before locking in my five plays for Circa.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays
PIT -2.5
SEA -3

Circa Millions Contest
PIT -2.5
SEA -3

Survivor Selections
Down to one entry!
JAX (WIN)
SF (WIN)
BUF (WIN)
MIN (WIN)
DAL (LOSE)



NFL Computer Model Picks
Platinum



Premium
HOU -7.5
MIA +7
NE -3.5
LAR -3

The Rest
MIN -2.5
PHI +7.5
CLE +2.5
GB +3
IND +2.5
NYG +4
LAC +3.5
DET -5.5
SEA -2.5
BAL +3.5





NFL Computer Model
2026-2027 Season
Overall 28-35 44.44%
Platinum 3-3 50%
Premium 6-8 42.85%

My Plays
Overall 6-6 55.55%
Circa Millions Contests Record 10-9-1 52.63%
Props/Parlays/Teasers/Other 1-4 -285
Boosts 1-1 +000

NFL Week Five Thursday Night

The computer likes TB +8.5 tonight. I am riding with Dallas in survivor!

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays

Circa Millions Contest

Survivor Selections
Down to one entry!
JAX (WIN)
SF (WIN)
BUF (WIN)
MIN (WIN)
DAL



NFL Computer Model Picks
Platinum



Premium


The Rest





NFL Computer Model
2026-2027 Season
Overall 28-35 44.44%
Platinum 3-3 50%
Premium 6-8 42.85%

My Plays
Overall 6-6 55.55%
Circa Millions Contests Record 10-9-1 52.63%
Props/Parlays/Teasers/Other 1-4 -285
Boosts 1-1 +000

NFL Week Four Wagers, Contest Plays, Survivor Picks and Computer Model Plays

Week four is here! This is the week I hope I know what I think I know! Sadly, this week is marred by injuries and some abysmal games. I will do my best to find five games for the Circa Millions contest. I am currently sitting in a tie for 504th place. There is a long way to go, but this is a start we can build on!

IND -3.5 at WAS (LON)
I hate the games in Europe. Do we know each team’s travel plans? Pass for me.


NE +7 at BUF
I could not play the Pats here, so to me it is Bills or nothing. Buffalo had their let down game last week and still won and covered. I am passing here as well.

TEN +11.5 at BAL
The Titans offense is awful and the defense is not much better. We have already had the early season Ravens collapse game, this is the early season blowout game. I think the Ravens will continue to score as they have all year long and the Titans are just not capable. Baltimore as a wager and in picks contests.


LAR -3 at PHI
The Eagles offense is not good and the offensive line is significantly worse than they anticipated. Now, Jalen Hurts may be without his only remaining receiving weapon. The Rams meanwhile have been solid in every game where they did not fly across the world in a day. Last week could have easily gone their way. We have one team that struggles to score, without their best weapon now being asked to protect their QB against a very good defense. I think the Rams do more than enough here and win, provided Smith does actually sit. Rams as a bet and in contests.

JAX +2.5 at CIN
I Think the Jags are actually good. I have been skeptical of the Bengals all season long and last week allowing the Steelers offense to cook did not alleviate any of my concerns. Having said all that, this is a tough road spot in Cincinnati. This will be the best offense the Jags have faced. Pass for me.

DAL +3 at HOU
Is Nico Collins going to play? The Texans offense needs Collins so badly before I would consider them. Pass for now.

NYJ +3.5 at CHI
The Jets stack was very good to me last week in DFS. I have zero feel for this game and most of that has to deal with the Bears not naming a starting QB. Pass for now.

GB -3.5 at TB
I know nothing about the Bucs new QB. I hate both these teams and they both stink. I do not want to do anything with the game, because then I would have to watch it. Pass.

ARZ -2.5 at NYG
This line has changed the most since lines opened over the summer. The Giants continue to be devastated by injuries and the Cardinals are able to score points. I am never laying points on the road with the Cardinals. Pass.

MIA +10.5 at MIN
What if the Dolphins do not score? This is an ugly slate. I do not particularly like taking or laying the points here either. Ugh, I do have to pick five games against the spread.

KC -4.5 at LVR
Pass. I am not laying more than a FG on the road with Patrick Mahomes. Yes, I know what happened last week. That might say more about the Dolphins than anything.

LAC +7 at SEA
Will the Chargers ever win a game? I kind of want to play Seattle back home against whatever is left of the Chargers. There is something about the Chargers that still scares me. Pass for now.

DEN +2.5 at SF
The Niners have so many injuries they can not even put another player on injured reserve. The Denver defense is legit, and the Broncos offense seems to be turning a corner. I really like the Broncos to play well here, mainly due to the slew of problems with Niners will encounter depth wise. Even if some of the questionable players suit up for the Niners, they will have limited depth if they are lucky. Give me the resurgent Broncos as a bet and in picks contests.

DET -3.5 at CAR
If the Panthers were not missing both starting corners, I would be all over the Panthers here. I still may find my way back home. The Detroit defense is not good as we know, and the Panthers need some positive injury news for their WR’s before I may consider coming back here. It seems like I am invested in the island night games every week. Lean Carolina.

ATL +2.5 at NO
Man, I was trying to stay away from the Saints again. The Saints will be missing one offensive line starter for sure and that affected them in the second half of last week that created immense pressure and the insanely almost impossible four turnovers in the final quarter. The Falcons might have just caught the Packers at the right time, and the Saints could be for real. This is the Hurricane Katrina homecoming game for New Orleans. Who am I kidding, Saints as a bet and in picks contests.

Here we are at the moment with four teams in for the Circa Millions. I need to keep going and improve on my 9-5-1 record!


Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays
NO -2.5
BAL -11.5
LAR -3
DEN +2.5

6 Point Teaser +240
DEN +8.5
BAL -5.5
SEA -1
BUF -1


Circa Millions Contest
NO -2.5
BAL -11.5
LAR -3
DEN +2.5

Survivor Selections
Down to one entry!
JAX (WIN)
SF (WIN)
BUF (WIN)
MIN



NFL Computer Model Picks
Platinum
JAX +2.5


Premium
IND -3.5
LAR -3
MIA +10.5
KC -4.5
DET -3.5

The Rest
PIT -2.5
NE +7
CHI -3.5
NYG +2.5
GB -3.5
TEN +11.5
HOU -3
DEN +2.5
LAC +7
ATL +2.5




NFL Computer Model
2026-2027 Season
Overall 19-29 39.85%
Platinum 2-3 40%
Premium 3-6 33.33%

My Plays
Overall 5-4 55.55%
Circa Millions Contests Record 9-5-1 64.28%
Props/Parlays/Teasers/Other 1-3 -185
Boosts 1-1 +000

NFL Week Four Thursday Night

NFL Sunday’s can be weird. In a matter of minutes I went from, “Hey I am headed for 4-0 in Circa,” all the way to, “Man I am going to be 2-2 with Denver.” The Saints committed four 4th quarter turnovers, and the Ravens could not score from the one-yard line and all the sudden I was disappointed. The Ravens ended up winning by 3 and earning a tie. A 3-1-1 week is fine, leaving me at 9-5-1 after three weeks. While it is nice keeping pace with the leaders, I am going to need some 4-1 and 5-0 weeks to make a real run at this thing.

Tonight is the spot the Steelers usually lose. Thursday night road game after a divisional win. Mike Tomlin’s group has a knack for starting slow and losing in the dumbest way possible in Cleveland. Last year it was DK Metcalf being suspended. The year before it was Jameis Winston winning in the second half snowstorm. I am completely skipping the Myles Garrett helmet rip and swing. This series always has weird things happening in Cleveland.

However, I have a different feeling. Maybe I am drinking the Mike McCarthy Kool-Aid. McCarthy was very successful on Thursday nights at his previous two coaching stops. The Steelers made multiple half-time changes last week that paid off. Not to mention changing the entire right side of the offensive line before the game. The offense looked good and the defense did just enough to win the game. Normally, I just assume this is a loss, but I am feeling a different way. However, I am staying away. I need to avoid wagering on the Steelers as this team is bad for my mental health without having a financial investment.

The computer model agrees with me and likes the Steelers as well. I hope we are both right.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays

Circa Millions Contest

Survivor Selections
Down to one entry!
JAX (WIN)
SF (WIN)
BUF (WIN)



NFL Computer Model Picks
Platinum
None


Premium


The Rest
PIT -2.5



NFL Computer Model
2026-2027 Season
Overall 19-29 39.85%
Platinum 2-3 40%
Premium 3-6 33.33%

My Plays
Overall 5-4 55.55%
Circa Millions Contests Record 9-5-1 64.28%
Props/Parlays/Teasers/Other 1-3 -185
Boosts 1-1 +000

NFL Week Three Wagers, Contest Plays, Survivor Picks and Computer Model Plays

After two weeks I always look at how I am doing when picking games with each team. I am 2-0 backing the Saints against the spread this year, but then I am 0-2 backing the Bucs. Part of being good at handicapping is being able to change your mind and adapt on the fly. Having said that, most teams do regress to the mean ATS. Yes, there is always one team that outshines their perception and ends 13-4 ATS. Seattle was that team last year, if you figure out who that will be this year you should take advantage.

SEA -7 at WAS
I am staying away from Washington in this spot as a home dog. Remember when we could just bet on home dogs and print money. That has ended and I am afraid of attacking teams playing Seattle now. Pass.

CIN -3.5 at PIT
I know what is the correct side here, but nope. I will not back my Steelers until I see it with my own eyes. The signs are all there. Divisional home dog, against an offense that was supposed to be good but has been average. Steelers’ defense is elite, that is for sure, but the offense is obsolete. Lean Pittsburgh, but no chance.

NYJ +6.5 at DET
The Lions offensive line continues to struggle and the defense is awful. The coaching advantage here is too large to even quantify. The Jets are 2-0 ATS and this look ahead line was around 9.5. Despite the line moving towards the Jets, I lean Detroit here. This should be a Lions offense gets it going at home game, but I am passing.

TEN +2.5 at NYG
God, this game may take place in massive rainstorms and wind. I want to mention that if you are playing in the DK picks contest, this line is set to TEN +6.5. Pass everywhere except in the DK picks contest.

NE +3 at JAX
I am backing the Jags here back home. The year from hell appears on the horizon for the Patriots. No AJ Brown, another offensive lineman broke his leg last week, the secondary continues mount up with injuries. The Jags looked strong to start in Denver and then faded and lost a close game. Playing in the south early in the season is always more difficult. Provided the Jags offensive line can hold up and protect Trevor Lawrence, the Jags offense should get going here. Drake Maye has struggled with turnovers, and I think that continues here. Jags -3 as a bet and in picks contests.

KC -10.5 at MIA
Nope. I said it each of the last two weeks. Mahomes laying three or less, yes. Mahomes laying close to a touchdown or more, pass. This is the correct spot to back the Dolphins at home getting a bunch of points. I can not get behind backing them though, but I do understand the reasoning. Everyone has moved the ball with ease against Miami and no reason that will not continue here.

HOU -1.5 at IND
Is Nico Collins playing? The Texan’s offense looked bad without any real weapon. I suppose we have seen two teams run the ball easily against the Colts. Both of these teams being 0-2 is very interesting, considering they both played two good teams. I need to know Collins status before deciding here, but man this is a stay-away for me.

CAR -2.5 at CLE
The Panthers are road favorites for back-to-back weeks. I cannot believe I am saying this. I am leaning into backing the Browns here. Carolina has struggled to stop the run, and we know Cleveland wants to pound the rock and then throw off it. It feels insane to back the Browns in any capacity, but a home dog against an NFC South team, I am interested. Lean Browns.

LAC +7 at BUF
I am not laying the seven, nor am I interested in getting seven. The chargers are in massive trouble and will be playing with desperation. Pass for me. The Chargers may be dead in the water, but the Bills defense is not good. Lots of back door cover potential here.

MIN -1.5 at TB
I am done with TB for the moment. Pass.

ARZ +8.5 at SF
I have a soft spot for the Cardinals. I did not take them week one and I think I was disappointed in myself and ended up taking them as my fifth game last week and of course it did not work out. I do want to take them again. For some reason I just like a team with a good offense getting a ton of points. The garbage TD potential is always there. I am definitely conflating DFS results and their offense with the Cardinals being a good wager or selection in contests. Pass for me.

LV +3 at NO
We are a pro Saints blog. We fired on the Saints each of the last two weeks and were successful. I really want to fire on the saints again. I think their offense is very good and the scheme seems to have receivers open constantly. I am concerned with the Saints losing an offensive tackle and now facing the solid pass rush of the Raiders. Having said that, maybe the Raiders played the two worst teams in the NFL the last two weeks in the Dolphins and Chargers. Meanwhile, the Saints played two solid offenses in the Lions and Ravens. This is still Kirk Cousins on the road. If the Saints defense can stimy the Lions and Ravens, they certainly can slow Kirk Cousins and Tre Tucker. (I am assuming Bowers sits one more week) Saints -3 as a bet and in picks contests.

BAL -3.5 vs DAL
This it the Ravens correction game. Last week Baltimore fell apart in the second half and struggled to score and stop the Saints. Dallas has had problems in both the first two weeks with a mobile QB and with getting any kinds of stops on defense. Despite Zay Flowers sitting, I believe that the Ravens will rebound in a huge way this week. Baltimore is -3 in picks contests and was -3 when I bet them earlier this week. I still like them at -3.5.

LAR at DEN
Two weeks in and I am unsure of both these teams still. The Rams have a bunch of injuris that are very concerning. If Puka sits again this week in Denver it may be a different story for this Rams offense. Lean Denver.

PHI -4.5 at CHI
Who is playing QB for the Bears? If it is not Case Keenum, I have interest in Chicago. Pass for now.


It appears I have three games locked in for Circa Millions and need to find two more! I will Tweet out who I end up over the weekend.



Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays
BAL -3
JAX -3
NO -3

6 Point Tease +240 (DK)
SEA -1
BUF -1
CLE +8.5
DEN +8.5

Circa Millions Contest
BAL -3
JAX -3
NO -3

Survivor Selections
I have two entries in most of my survivor contests.
Entry One
PIT (WIN)
TB (LOSE)

Entry Two
JAX (WIN)
SF (WIN)
BUF



NFL Computer Model Picks
Platinum
None


Premium
LAR -2.5
SEA -7
PIT +3.5
DET -6.5

The Rest
GB -4.5
LAC +7
CLE +2.5
IND +2
MIA +10.5
TEN +3
JAX -3
SF -8.5
TB +1.5
DAL +3.5
NO -3
CHI +4.5



NFL Computer Model
2026-2027 Season
Overall 12-20 37.5%
Platinum 2-3 40%
Premium 1-4 20%

My Plays
Overall 4-3 57.14%
Circa Millions Contests Record 6-4 60%
Props/Parlays/Teasers/Other 1-2 -085
Boosts 1-1 +000

NFL Week Three Thursday Night

Sadly, we lost one of our survivor entries last week. Two weeks is a small sample size, but it is time to change our thoughts on teams. It is important to be able to say I was wrong about this team and change your mind. I was very wrong about the Bucs. I am not wrong about the Steelers. For tonight, if I was playing the game, it would be the Falcons. Yes, I know they are terrible, but the Packers losing several offensive line starters, on a line that was already terrible, is not ideal on a short week. The computer barely likes the Packers, but as I said, I lean Falcons.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays

Circa Millions Contest

Survivor Selections
I have two entries in most of my survivor contests.
Entry One
PIT (WIN)
TB (LOSE)

Entry Two
JAX (WIN)
SF (WIN)



NFL Computer Model Picks
Platinum



Premium


The Rest
GB -4.5



NFL Computer Model
2026-2027 Season
Overall 12-20 37.5%
Platinum 2-3 40%
Premium 1-4 20%

My Plays
Overall 4-3 57.14%
Circa Millions Contests Record 6-4 60%
Props/Parlays/Teasers/Other 1-2 -085
Boosts 1-1 +000

NFL Week Two Wagers, Contest Plays, Survivor Picks and Computer Model Plays

The good news is that the computer model can only get better from this point moving forward. Conversely, I ended up 3-2 in the Circa Millions contest. I had four games solidly in by last Friday. I determined the Saints, Bucs, Eagles and Steelers with the line move were in my final five. Friday night I waffled a great deal between the Cardinals and the Chiefs. Fast forward to Sunday afternoon and I was feeling a great deal of regret as I landed on the Chiefs. Fortunately, the Chiefs came in and no matter where I had landed, I would have been 3-2. There are just under 5800 people in the Circa Millions and now I am tied in 2050th with around a thousand of my friends. It is time for week two.

CAR -2.5 at ATL
If only the Falcons had a QB. The Panthers defense could not stop the run, or pass, but I can not back the Falcons and Cooper Rush. I think Bijan has a massive day but pass on playing this in a contest or as a wager.

MIN +5.5 at CHI
Carson Wentz on the road after getting multiple bailouts calls to help move the ball and beat the Packers. I think the Vikings defense makes this interesting, but I am staying away from this one as well. I hate week two.

PHI -7 at TEN
We do not make money laying a TD or more on the road. I do not care about the result and situation, but I am out. The Eagles are significantly better, but their once solid offensive line seems to be struggling at the moment. Pass on this game.

PIT +5.5 at NE
Man. Steelers bias alert. The Steelers defense should be able to dominate at times. Yet, my concern is the Steelers offense. Can we blame DK for all the issues along with the non-calls? The Steelers offensive line may have to do some shuffling, but this team only scored 13 points against a bad Falcons team. The Steelers feel like the correct side, but I can not do it. Pass, but lean Steelers.

GB -3.5 at NYJ
This is the sharp play of the week. This line has come down from 5.5 all the way to 3.5 since the look ahead last week. The Packers offensive line got exposed in an awful way. Are the Jets actually good, or did they just play the Titans las week? I understand the appeal of wanting to take a home dog here especially against a team with a shaky defense, they can not run the ball. This just feels like a sharp trap. Pass for now, but lean Jets.

CLE +8.5 at TB
Sometimes I end up with the public on a very chalky play. The Browns are terrible. Watson is horrendous. They were never in the game last week; they were not even competitive. Meanwhile the Bucs did not punt last week. Zero punts. They lost and were not good with the points either. The Bucs fumbled four times last week and lost them all. If the Bucs just continue to move the ball like they did last week and have a little more success in the redzone they should cover this number. If Baker fumbles inside the five-yard-line, so be it. I am going to add in the Florida heat always being an issue for northern teams in the season. TB -8.5 as a wager and in contests.

NO +8.5 at BAL
We did not for sure know the status of Zay Flowers. The Ravens could potentially be without two wide receivers and coming home after a huge week one road win. I may be making a huge mistake here, honestly. The Saints had an early TD taken away on a call I still do not understand, then they exploded offensively. When teams have an offense and can score, they are dangerous and dogs I want to back. The Ravens have done this in the past, laying an egg at home after big road win. Yes, different coaching staff and all, but if the Ravens are going to be this Super Bowl contender, they come out and take care of business here. If the Ravens are missing a lot from their passing attack, it should mean the Saints can focus on the running game and slow Derrick Henry. It feels like the Saints may be the team that goes 8-9 but finishes 13-4 ATS. Nothing like backing a dome team outdoors on grass when they played a first half so bad last week, I wondered if they would pick a QB in the first next year. Saints +8.5 as a bet and in picks contests.

CIN +2.5 at HOU
The Bengals defense did force turnovers last week, which was much needed in order to improve that defense and win last week. I have no idea about this game. Nico Collins may be sitting out, the Bengals being the Bengals. I want to back the Texans defense, but I cannot. Lean Houston, but pass.

JAX +2.5 at DEN
I am not going to overreact here, so I am staying away from this game as well. Pass as I have no feel at all.

LV +6.5 at LAC
Is Ladd playing? The Chargers offense fell apart as soon as Ladd got hurt. The line here is saying the Chargers are the correct side, but I can not do it. The Chargers have always been good, but not great and maybe they are falling apart. Pass.

WAS +4 at DAL
The Commanders played a lot better than I thought they would last week. The Washington defense I was convinced would be awful and it was adequate. On the other side of the ball Jayden Daniels was good, his mobility helped camouflage the porous offensive line the Commanders possess.  Dallas oddly seemed confused on defense. The Giants just physically pushed them around and then Dallas was kept off the field by the Giants dominant time of possession. I Think if the Eagles offensive line was better, they would have scored a lot more and rolled over the Commanders. This is the game the Dallas offense explodes. I think Dak has a fantastic game, as does Lamb and the drop king, George Pickens. I love a Dallas rebound performance here. Cowboys -4 as a bet and in contests.

MIA +13.5 at SF
I am not going to lie, I kind of want to play the Niners. We know these teams are not close in talent; it is just a matter of if San Fran is acclimated back to being on West Coast time. Lean SF.

SEA -3.5 at ARZ
Drew Locke is laying 3.5 on the road, in the year 2026. No, this is not a CFL line. I said last week, Arizona has weapons and can score. But this will be a real test against the Seahawks defense. What can we make of the Patriots not taking advantage of the Seattle secondaries injury issues? Do we blame a vanilla game plan, Drake Maye? I very much want to back the home divisional dog here but am waiting. Lean Arizona but pass for now.

IND +6.5 at KC
I feel like I got the Chiefs correct during week one. I am good to take a break from backing or attacking them. The old path though was to take the dog when Patrick Mahomes is giving more than three points. Both teams should regress back to the middle a little this week. Lean Colts, but I am not excited to go after either side. Pass.

NYG +7 at LAR
This is a get right spot for the Rams, but I am passing. I want to see it from the Rams first. I assume we can chalk up last week to the awful preparation and travel plans. Maybe the Giants are for real, but I am not buying it yet. If the G-Men can win here, everyone will be buying in. Lean Rams, pass for now.



So here we are, with three game set for Circa Millions and two more to go. I will post my updated plays on Twitter/X later this weekend.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays
3 Team Parlay +115 (DK)

Buff -1.5 (WIN)
PITT ML (WIN)
MIA (Hurricanes) -6.5

TB -8 (Fanatics)
NO +8.5
DAL -4

3 Team 6-Point Tease +140 (DK)
TB -2.5
PHI -1
LAR -1

Circa Millions Contest
TB -8.5
NO +8.5
DAL -4

Survivor Selections
I have two entries in most of my survivor contests.
Entry One
PIT (WIN)
TB

Entry Two
JAX (WIN)
SF



NFL Computer Model Picks
Platinum
HOU -2.5
IND +6.5
LAR -7


Premium
GB -3.5
NO +8.5

The Rest
DET +5.5
ATL +2.5
MIN +5.5
PHI -7
PIT +5.5
CLE +8.5
JAX +2.5
LAC -6.5
WAS +4
SEA -3.5
MIA +13.5



NFL Computer Model
2026-2027 Season
Overall 6-10 37.5%
Platinum 0-2 0%
Premium 0-3 0%

My Plays
Overall 2-2 50%
Circa Millions Contests Record 3-2 60%
Props/Parlays/Teasers/Other 0-1 -100
Boosts 1-1 +000

NFL Week Two Thursday Night

We have a super fun Thursday night game. My Pitt Panthers are hosting Syracuse! I know you thought I was going to talk about the NFL. This is a great game of two good teams, with solid offenses opening up the Bills new stadium. I think Detroit’s defense is awful and still believe that. If I was playing this game, it would be on the Buffalo side.

My Plays
3 Team Parlay +115 (DK)

Buff -1.5
PITT ML
MIA (Hurricanes) -6.5
Pitt’s offense has been very good, especially if you consider the monsoon they played in last week against UCF. Syracuse turned it over three times last week and missed some big field goals. Kicking at Heinz (Yes, that is what I am calling it), is a little more difficult than being in a dome.  Miami is playing a team that gave up 36 points to Purdue. I think Miami’s offense might be slightly better.  I think Josh Allen and the Bills offense continue to score a bunch of points and get a win to open their new stadium. I am not sure the Lions offense can keep pace with the Bills. The computer model likes the Lions though.

I want to mention that Fanatics has a boost of Gibbs and Cook to rush for 60+ at +100. That should be around -130 in an SGP. Their props are Gibbs 87.5 and Cook 79.5. My max bet is very small, maybe yours is higher? After all most people got the free money from FD last week. I have added my recommended boosts record to the bottom, with all the other records.

Tomorrow, a full breakdown of all the games! Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Circa Millions Contest

Survivor Selections
I have two entries in most of my survivor contests.
Entry One
PIT (WIN)


Entry Two
JAX (WIN)

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NFL Computer Model Picks
Platinum


Premium


The Rest
DET +5.5


NFL Computer Model
2026-2027 Season
Overall 6-10 37.5%
Platinum 0-2 0%
Premium 0-3 0%

My Plays
Overall 2-2 50%
Circa Millions Contests Record 3-2 60%
Props/Parlays/Teasers/Other 0-1 -100
Boosts 1-0 +100